I am starting to understand the psychology of the minters,
Now that we have a Bitcoin ETF looking like it will get approved the greed has trumped fear and the kamikaze traders are coming back in. Selling Vai at a 15% loss.
Only recently we saw VAI hitting 0.843 a 15% loss on the other side of the order book, which is quite irrational as the maximum a liquidator can make is 10% minus transaction fees, and you could just post BUSD as collateral if you want your Bitcoin back.
While we might see some inflows into the Futures ETF it will have a big tracking error and line the pockets of wall street, I know this event has caused a big run up in price, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the launch sf a buy the rumour sell the news event.
We might see very thin trading volumes like when the CME and CBOE futures launched. In fact CBOE ended up stopping the product due to not enough trading volume.
I am overall bullish on the space but I do not think now is a good time to lever up.
Maybe they want wallet 6&7 to be refilled before reopening withdrawals.
Deposit are open, which I would hope is locked in cold storage, then they need the designated person(s) to unlock those funds and transfer them over to the hot wallets.
Seems to take at least 24 hours creating an arb, this time was only around 0.5% but worth watching the wallets.
Liquidity is super thin and I get the impression bots sometimes rapidly remove liquidity to cause the price distortions.
The Spike up to 1.09 was done on 40k volume then went back to 1.02 on 7k
The total mint is falling by approx $1 million a day.
September 22nd
October 21st
October 24th
The liquidity on all exchanges is now razor thin while the stability fee is getting closer to being deployed with every day that passes.
Once it goes to vote it may be too late to get out at a discount and we may see another panic dump, at the moment I think we may see another crack up in the Busd price compared to VAI.
Will keep my powder dry to buy more if it does get even cheaper than it is now, with the mint drying up my conviction in this trade is getting higher all the time. If you want to dump your VAI I’ll be on the other side waiting don’t worry
I’ve refilled at 1.084 for 1, after I previously sold at the opposite price. Not optimal, but decent. Currently at breakeven for that cycle, not counting arbs. BTC did better, those Shiba things still more, but for a stablecoin it’s pretty good. My VAI gain so far is an order of magnitude higher than my Bonds (and i’m talking about High-yield ones).
The sad point is that my VAI, meanwhile, yields very low by itself.
I think XVS could well be due for a rally if they get the buybacks going and the vault launched successfully. Would make the yields look a little better if the mint keeps coming down.
Big LOL at the tweeter screenshot. It’s so Musk.
This is why I call it gambling. You can win big, lose big, just like roulette.
The VAI tunnel in 1.10-0.9 seems strong but I admit I didn’t expect VAI to be that low with the fee approaching and the mint still disabled.
I compare a lot of these coins to early stage VC investments, a lot of them will completely fail but 1 or 2 might 100x
Very much like gambling if you use leverage, but if you spread your bets you will probably win big, incidentally Shib is now up since that tweet, while Doge is still down 70% from the highs despite Musk saying there will be network upgrades.
Looks like 1.11 has been broken I’m watching out for 1.15 and 1.20 kind of surprising people still have VAI left to sell at a loss.
Wise. I mis-evaluated 1.084 as a good entry point, got wrong. No big harm, it just delays my expected gain, those sellers @ 1.12 will have to buy back at some point. And all that accumulated VAI often opens arb opportunities. But ending october near 1.15 is really not what I expected. If your breakeven target is 1.20, bravo.
1.15 is a target because it looks like a bull flag on the charts, which if broken could easily go to 1.20. Not a rational price but then neither is the level we are currently at.
I doubt we will have to wait that long, a good weekly update on the stability fee should probably do it.
Yes just got notified, my 0.9-1.1 tunnel was an illusion. I’m still confident i’ll get the 1:1 back but meanwhile i’m stuck with VAI and it’s pitiful 2% yield.
